Michael krepon, the myth of deterrence stability between nuclear armed rivals, in deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia, ed. This kind of nuclear force posturing or semideployment of nuclear weapons, especially in the environs of south asia where there is an excess of heat, dust, poor infrastructure, and the close prox. There is reason to believe nuclear capability may make the chances of war worse in south asia. From his perspective, nuclear weapons have fueled a violent cycle of pakistani provocation and indian response, giving rise to a number of crises that might easily have spun into chaos. No matter how unbelievable it may seem, pakistans suggestion that it might predelegate authority for use of a nucleartipped nasr to battlefield commanders greatly increases tension with india and the chances of nuclear conflict. His books include the recently published indiapakistan nuclear diplomacy. Buy inside nuclear south asia book online at low prices in. Americas strategy to defeat north korea in a bloody war. South asia today presents a complex picture of the deteriorating security environment, where nuclear rivals india and pakistan are locked in an antagonistic relationship. The paperback of the inside nuclear south asia by scott d. This site is like a library, use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want.
In south asia, nuclear arsenal is seen as a great equaliser and the ultimate tool to counter adversarys present or future conventional strength. India and pakistan have come a long way in the nearly two decades that have followed the 1998 nuclear tests. Ramana a research report of the international panel on fissile materials. The nuclearization of south asia download ebook pdf. The course, part of the stimson centers nuclear learning initiative, provides the emerging generation of strategic analysts in india, pakistan, and elsewhere a platform to study nuclear competition and dangers on the subcontinent. Sp 296 cy stanford pb stanford university press py 2009 ur. Introduction to nuclear south asia watch lessons 1. Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia. Constructivism and the prospects for nuclear arms control and.
Buy inside nuclear south asia book online at best prices in india on. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online. South asia s nuclear postures and south asian stability, international security 34, no. After the 1971 indopakistani war and the conclusion of the simla agreement in 1972, south asia had witnessed a state of equilibrium and relative stability. Nuclear stability in south asia iii the september 11 terrorist attacks on the united states and the subsequent war in afghanistan have focused world attention on south asia.
This report adheres to a variation of the chatham house rule. Search for library items search for lists search for. This book is a very important guide to understanding the events and processes occurring inside nuclear south asia, and suggests important ways of thinking about other nuclear regions where states are embraced in protracted entanglements. Jan 11, 2018 trumps speech announcing the new south asia strategy on august 21, 2017, stated that pakistan and india are two nucleararmed states whose tense relations threaten to spiral into conflict.
My case study of south asias 1990war scare is framed by severalimportant issues in the scholarly analysis of. An rsis roundtable at the singapore international energy week 2015 this report summarises the proceedings of the roundtable as interpreted by the rapporteur and editors of the rsis centre for nts studies. Kapur thus believes nuclear weapons have been a destabilizing force in south asia. India and pakistan are indeed entangled in a longstanding security competition.
Conventional wisdom states that the stabilityinstability paradox does not explain the effect of nuclear proliferation on the conflict propensity of south asia, and that nuclear weapons have had a different and more dangerous impact in south asia than cold war europe. The book begins with an analysis of the factors that led to. The study of muslim law in south asia highlights two important points. Zafar khan argues that the introduction of nuclear weapons in south asia has successfully decreased the likelihood of largescale war between india and pakistan, as shown during the 1999 kargil conflict, the 2008 mumbai crisis, and the 2016 uri, pathankot, and nagrota attacks. May 09, 2017 the stimson center is offering a free online course to help assess this state of play, what choices lay ahead, and how to avoid the mistakes that washington and moscow have made. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear weapons in south asia and the potential consequences of nuclear proliferation on the subcontinent. Your standing is withdrawn a main or huge character. Treaty is the first effort at creating a nuclear weaponfree zone which asks the nuclear powers to refrain from using and threatening to use nuclear arms not only against parties to the treaty, but also anywhere within the zone. The conflict between india and pakistan may be the most serious and imminent danger to the south asian region and humanity over the. Simply, one cannot rule out the use of nuclear weapons in south asia. Jun 15, 2015 kidwais remarks have reopened the debate over south asias nuclear stability.
Nuclear weapons and conflict in south asia stephen p. Economic and energy developments nearly 60% of the worlds people live in asia, where most countries have quite low levels of gross national product and per capita energy consumption. Background the idea of a nuclear weaponfree zone in southeast asia was first mooted in the early. Inside nuclear south asia scott douglas sagan this book presents an analytical account of the causes and dangerous consequences of nuclear proliferation in south asia. It is based on an article by sagan, the perils of proliferation in south asia, asia survey, novdec 2001, vol. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation. How can domestic and international efforts at resolving con. Growing nuclear and missile threat nearing operational deployment 1 diversification and demonstration of north koreas nuclear and missile capabilities north koreas provocative actions in 2016 began with its fourth nuclear test, allegedly a hydrogenbomb test, on january 6. A stimson center essay by jeffrey mccausland has expanded on the dangers of pakistan incorporating tactical. His new edited volume, inside nuclear south asia, provides many cautionary notes. This briefing book contains material from the national security archives project on u. The purpose of the workshop was to assess the new nuclear reality of. The deeply ingrained, traditional hostility between india and pakistan accentuates the dangers inherent in a south asian nuclear proliferation. He also cautions that the role of the pakistani military on nuclear matters is unlikely to be circumscribed by civilian.
It is time for the global nonproliferation regime to open the door to a normal nuclear south asia and for india and pakistan to address the international communitys legitimate concerns over their respective arms buildups. This study investigates the military stability of south asia, after overt display of nuclear explosions by pakistan and india in may 1998. Thus nuclear weapons not only destabilized south asia in the first decade after the nuclear tests. The next decade in south asia 3 1 the challenges of nuclear learning in south asia feroz khan and ryan jacobs he sustainability of strategic stability in south asia of the highest importance to remains u. Digital rights management drm the publisher has supplied this book in encrypted form, which means that you need to install free software in order to unlock and read it. Army war college, in carlisle, pennsylvania, hosted the workshop, nuclear south asia. These events represent only the latest in a series of crises in that region of the world, and washington, and much of the rest of the international commu. Apr 14, 2015 america and russia still possess more than 90% of the worlds nuclear weapons but south asia, home to three nuclear states, remains a growing worry, perhaps one that will get more attention in the. Wishing for a good outcome to the inevitable indiapakistan nuclear arms race complicated by chinas role as a rival to india and a supplier to pakistanis not. Project muse ten years of instability in a nuclear south.
The south asian case is different from the cold war situation in which targets of main rival were several thousand kilometers away from each other. Nuclear history read the backgrounder on key events in south watch lessons 2. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bomb is a free, open online course produced by the south asia program at the stimson center. Starting point for nuclear learning june 28, 2017 by sitara noor the stimson centers south asia program maintains a reputation as the goto source when it comes to finding informed analysis of nuclear weapons developments and associated risks in south asia. May 01, 2002 nuclear weapons and nuclear war in south asia.
May 25, 2017 travis wheeler and gillian gayner present stimsons open online course. I will argue below that india and pakistan were deterred from war in 1990by each sides knowledge that the other was nuclear weaponcapable, and therefore that any military hostilities could have escalated to the nuclear level. Nuclear disarmament and south asia institute for energy and. The apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has.
A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear. He researches and writes on nuclear weapons and nuclear power issues in south asia and global disarmament. In the aftermath of the indian and pakistani nuclear tests, foreign affairs has published against nuclear apartheid by indias senior adviser on defense and foreign affairs, jaswant singh, septemberoctober 1998 and dealing with the bomb in south asia by deputy secretary of state strobe talbott marchapril 1999. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. Nuclear signals in south asia bulletin of the atomic scientists. Ty book ti inside nuclear south asia a2 sagan, scott d. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation 2 however, the events of 911 put across new considerations regarding nuclear proliferation. The risk of a nucleartinged south asian crisis is rising. South asia insiders and outsiders because conditions for stable deterrence on the subcontinent are absent, even with nuclear weapons. South asia who promoted nuclear weapons in the two countries with the promise of.
The future use of nuclear weapons by india and pakistan is impossible to predict with any confidence. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear weapons. You can like the online inside nuclear south at any crime. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia.
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the military consequences of a u. Pdf nuclear arms race in south asia muhammed yusen. India continues to enhance technology and capability in multiple domains, including air and seabased deployment of the nuclear arsenal. Babson former official, world bank harry broadman managing director, the albright stonebridge group bill brown senior advisor, north korea mission manager, office of the director of national intelligence robert carlin visiting fellow, center for international security and cooperation, stanford university jerome cohen professor, new york university law school. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bomb provides the emerging generation of strategic analysts in india, pakistan, and elsewhere a platform to study nuclear competition and dangers on the subcontinent. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations. Online inside nuclear south asia online inside nuclear south asia by esther 3. South asia is one of the regions with the highest population growth rates in the world, and this trend is expected to continue up. Nuclear doctrines in south asia 4 south asian strategic stability unit nuclear pessimists, however, has tended to neglect the critical role that nuclear doctrines of the emerging nuclear weapon states might play in either causing deterrence failure or ensuring its robustness. The 1998 nuclear tests by india and pakistan dramatically worsened the secur ity situation for. Speculations on the f uture of nuclear s outh a sia pervez hoodbhoy and zia mian the future of nuclear south asia is inextricably linked to power and politics in pakistan and india and to the global nuclear order. Nuclear armed adversaries india and pakistan have fought three wars since their creation as sovereign states in 1947.
The two countries have been loggerhead on kashmir dispute since their inception in 1948. Nuclear weapons and nuclear war in south asia brookings. Inside nuclear south asia, 2009 online research library. Affairs, welcomed the interagency group for the nuclear south asia gam e nuclear south asia the center for strategic leadership csl, u. It argues that now there are possibilities only of a weaponscontrol, not a weaponsfree, regime for south asia. Review the answers and explanations, and retake if necessary.
This development could exacerbate regional securitydilemma dynamics and increase the likelihood of indopakistani conflict in years to come. The first nuclear learning course nuclear south asia. Click download or read online button to get the nuclearization of south asia book now. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are. Most recently, he coedited with smitu kothari out of the nuclear shadow zed books, 2001. South asias lessons, evolving dynamics, and trajectories. India emerged from the 1971 war with pakistan as the dominant power of south asia. The nuclear explosions of may 1998 by both india and pakistan disturbed this situation and created a whole new geostrategic environment. The southeast asia nuclear weaponfree zone treaty amitav acharya. Nuclear south asia, by major gulraiz afzal khan, 65 pages. The future of nuclear south asia read the backgrounder on the future of nuclear. Confidence building and nuclear risk reduction measures in south asiarequired. On the one hand the concerns regarding further proliferation and fear of possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists or rogue regimes enhanced.
In the final sections, potential restraints on further proliferation are assessed, and specific steps are outlined that, if taken by the international community, could slow or halt south asias passage to overt weaponization. Sagan warns once again that the rational deterrence model presumes unitary actors, whereas india and pakistan are anything but unitary actors. Trendsandpotential consequences michael krepon1 t o. In may 1998, india conducted a nuclear test that did little to advance the countrys longstanding nuclear weapons program but did advertise its existence to the world. In may 1998, india conducted a nuclear test that did. Travis wheeler and gillian gayner present stimsons open online course. Nuclear systems are in a dangerous state of constant transition from varying levels of deployment.
888 1388 116 997 419 725 380 1396 1468 945 471 1445 809 592 973 390 310 492 1478 768 1073 1580 393 751 512 32 1559 188 1238 1225 828 484 1006 941 465 996 828 1110 191